Expecting Value – UK Value Investing Blog
18Apr/140

Smiths News (NWS)

Part Two

This post leads directly on from yesterday's, in which I pontificated on the structure of the industry in which Smiths News operate. Like a veteran soap writer, I left on a tantalising cliffhanger - where does what was discussed leave the business? This is an investing blog, after all, so I suppose I should consider the financials and have a poke at thinking about the valuation of the company.

The basics

The way to value Smiths News, I think, is by viewing it as basically two different sides of the same coin - the mature and declining news segment, which still dominates overall business performance, and 'the rest' - faster growing with more growth opportunities. The group's rising revenue figures should be seen as a combination of these two disparate sides, and also as a consequence of consolidation in the industry (notably in 2010, where they effectively bailed out one of their failing competitor's contracts).  This sort of consolidation is unsurprising and normal in a declining industry - the economies I talked about previously become critical.

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17Apr/141

Smiths News (NWS)

Staying relevant

Smiths News is an interesting company. It's an interesting company primarily for  the reason I always come out with - they do something ostensibly very simple. How can simple be interesting? I find simple interesting because companies doing straightforward tasks, by virtue of competition, have to do them well. Bunzl supply products (all sorts) to places and supply vending machines, but they are everywhere. That's a business we can all relate to - hell, if you can drive, it's a service you could set up and start providing yourself. Safestyle manufacture windows, market windows and install windows; clearly, this too is not rocket science. When you strip away a lot of the stuff which puts people off investing - the image of the banks' 200 page annual reports, full of bizarre terminology and impenetrable figures, I think understanding the businesses is the really enjoyable bit.

Smiths News, hinted at in the name, are distributors of newspapers and magazines. They also own Consortium, which anyone who went to school in the last 15 years (maybe more - I can only speak for myself!) might remember from rubbers, rulers and pencils, and Bertrams, a book distributor. Given that both Consortium and Bertrams were fairly recent acquisitions in the history of the group, it doesn't take too much thought to figure out what's going on here - Smiths News are diversifying. Why are they diversifying? It's an age-old story; a decline in their core market, and an attempt to apply expertise and processes from that core market to other sectors.

I'm looking at Smiths News again because their pre-close trading statement saw the group's share price price dip about 20%, and they currently sit a third off their high - for what seems to me to be a fairly innocuous forecast. The group saw performance in line with last year, itself a reasonable performance, though perhaps some of the disappointment comes from the faster-growing segment (Bertrams) performing poorly. I'm not hugely concerned with trying to figure out what the market was thinking or why it reacts in the way it does, but it seems fairly safe to say that growth was expected, and none was delivered.

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Tagged as: NWS, Smiths News 1 Comment
11Apr/140

Portfolio

Some shuffling

The markets have been pretty volatile recently, and the year-to-date has been one of my longest periods of underperformance vs. the market for a couple of years. I use the term 'underperformance' loosely - it's more or less in line with the All-Share percentage wise, which isn't particularly worrying nor worthy of note. It is interesting, though, if you're a story person. We all are to some degree; whenever the market twists and turns people start talking about the 'fear' biting into the bull run, or conjure up images of that great unwieldy behemoth - market sentiment - swinging round at last. In that vein, one thing I can say I am very interested in is how my portfolio performs in different scenarios. An element of counter-cyclicality and relatively smaller losses when the market is tanking appeals to me as an investor, because I'm trained to believe that protecting downside risk is paramount, and that probabilities in the minds of market participants tend to be skewed to unduly penalise 'boring' shares.

Does my portfolio fit that nice, broad aim? Unsurprisingly, I don't think it's really possible to say. I'd like to think I have 3 years of data - I have been running the portfolio for nearly 3 years, now, but that's not really true. I would have 3 years of data if my strategy had stayed the same, and if I had not evolved as an investor; but there are companies I like the look of now that I never would have considered 3 years ago, and vice versa. Sure, there are broad similarities - so one can draw broad conclusions - but markets are noisy.

Really, I'm just saying what I always say, here - people aren't conditioned to understand the nature of results in an extremely high volatility environment like the market. The same was true when I played poker, another extremely high variance game. Solid, winning players could be down money over tens of thousands of hands - even though they made the correct decision in every scenario. Terrible players sometimes enjoyed the opposite effect. Naturally, the good player is left questioning himself, and the bad player thinks he's the next Phil Ivey.

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Tagged as: Empresaria, EMR No Comments
4Apr/143

Safestyle (SFE)

A different flavour of IPO

It feels like a lot of companies have come to market recently. Poundland, Pets at Home and Boohoo.com hold very little appeal for me at current valuations - and the whole IPO process is one which immediately makes me a little suspicious, anyway. There is one company which caught my eye enough (just post IPO) to give them a proper read through, though. I was planning to write this post last week, but the imminent publication of their full year results for 2013 gave me enough of a reason to sit on my hands and twiddle my thumbs for a while longer. I now look at them with a round 33% more financial data (four years of results instead of three!). Quite the boon.

Many of my UK readers will, I suspect, have heard of Safestyle. I might go so far as to read your mind with regard to the first thought, which I suspect will be this; one of those adverts so annoying it becomes memorable.

For those who don't know them, they are a manufacturer/distributor of windows. They're the largest seller of replacement windows in the UK, which is a market worth about £2bn a year and which has a surprisingly fragmented structure; their market share sits at 7.9%, with Anglian and Everest (which I assume are the other two in the top three) pooling 20% between them. The rest is made up of smaller, regional players. Their positioning - if you couldn't tell from the advert - is distinctly at the value end of that spectrum. From anecdotal experience, Safestyle are significantly cheaper than their competitors. The scale of that cost difference - as well as the incentives at work in replacement windows (how long are you planning to stay in the house for? How much do you care about quality?) likely explain Safestyle's continually increasing market share; 4.4% in 2007 and 7.9% now. The value proposition to customers appears to be sticking.

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Tagged as: Safestyle, SFE 3 Comments
24Mar/145

Portfolio (NTG, ABM, VLK)

News & Updates

One of the problems with the slightly more infrequent posting I've sadly been subject to recently - not a conscious decision, I should add, but more a function of my increasingly variable (and more steeply inclined) variations in patterns of work - is that, put most simply, more things happen in between me posting. Investing often feels pretty feast or famine - I spend a lot of time impatiently sitting on my hands while the portfolio bobs up and down, without any real news or need for change. I then get lots of news at once and am slightly overwhelmed with the possibilities; the enormity of the market, which really comes home when companies start to report, stirs things up a little. This is all irrational, of course; the upstanding investor works methodically and doesn't get lazy when there's not much news - there're always more stones to upturn and research to do. I'll let you know when I get closer to that dream.

Northgate

Here's the moral of a story that you won't need to be told: sell when a share hits your sell price. Don't wait and hope it goes up more. Northgate is a company I've held since it was about 250p a share, where I thought it was significantly undervalued. Recently it's traded at above 500p, where I'm (obviously) less convinced it's undervalued. I told myself I would sell if it hit 600p a share; I haven't anywhere else to put the money share-wise at the moment - nothing that hugely grabs me, anyway - but I do reckon at that price I would prefer to either hold the money in cash, or one of the companies on my watchlists I was um-ing and ah-ing about. It hit about 615p a couple of weeks ago, when I did sell in my personal portfolio - to be swiftly replaced by Quarto - but not on this one. Alas, it's since fallen about 15%, as the market didn't like a trading update. Well, that and the general filler about sentiment - I'm always cautious to attribute anything causally when it comes to the markets, even when it appears blindingly obvious. I'm often wrong.

I didn't mind the trading update, anyway; clearly the market's expectations were different to mine. Perhaps I should have read that in the share price - it's often difficult to know what assumptions other people are implicitly making from just a single number moving up and down, and it appears I read this one wrong.

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17Mar/141

Speedy Hire (SDY)

Speedy riser

Lots of companies have got caught up in the big bull run over the last few months. Some, I would suggest, are perfectly justified in their valuations. Some I do not think warranted a big price increase. I suspect a feeling that the markets are sometimes over correlated is quite a common one amongst investors of a stock-picking tilt; it provides us with a fairly good theoretical justification for why the market values of companies might differ from their fundamental values and seems, at least intuitively, to hold some weight. Speedy Hire is a company I looked at a couple of years ago, and which caught my eye the other day; it was trading at an enormous multiple of that at which it traded when I passed on it. Did I make a mistake? Well, curiosity moulds the investor and all (I grant you it's not quite a catchy as its more traditional variant), so I figured I'd take a look.

At this point, I should shoot a thanks to red; it was his appraisal on my initial post that really got me thinking on how to value these sorts of companies - and I think they're fun case studies. As ever, mistakes and misinterpretations are my own. I am a private investor like most of you, stumbling around the misty world of the stock market and trying to find my way.

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Tagged as: SDY, Speedy Hire 1 Comment